CASE FILE // BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS UNIT
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You know what happened.
You don't know why.
Why your $50 parlay turned into a $400 chase. Why you keep betting NBA props at -18% ROI.
BetAutopsy reads your history like a case file.
Your Tuesday night parlays cost $340 last quarter. Your stakes jump 1.8x after a loss. Specific patterns, specific dollars, specific fixes.
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draftkings_history_2024.csv
847 bets · 14 months
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312 bets · 6 months
See a real autopsy report
280 bets. 3 months. 3 biases found. $480/quarter in recoverable losses.
AUTOPSY REPORT #BA-LIVE
NOV 1, 2025 – JAN 31, 2026 · 280 SPECIMENS ANALYZED
C-
GRADE
The Parlay Dreamer
You're betting for the big hit, and the math is working against you every time. Parlays feel like upside; they're actually a tax on optimism. The picks themselves are often defensible. It's the packaging that's killing you.
▸ ABOUT THIS REPORT
01
Summary
The executive briefing
Significant emotional betting
More controlled than 30% of bettors
Process consistency is low
Better than 35% of bettors
Better than 55% of bettors
Moderate skill level. Some promising spots, but you're also making bets without clear edge.
Bankroll Health: Monitor
Your bankroll trajectory could use some adjustments. The recommendations below can help stabilize it.
TOTAL RECOVERABLE
$2,062
Estimated money left on the table from all detected leaks and biases. Some leaks may overlap.
02
Findings
Behavioral analysis and pattern detection
FINDINGS
Your average stake jumps from $72 to $134 after a loss. That's an 86% increase. After losing streaks of 3+, you placed 14 bets over $200. Nine of those lost.
Recommended Action
Set a hard ceiling: no bet can exceed 1.5x your average stake ($123). After 3 losses in a row, stop for the day.
est. cost: -$480/qtr
31% of your bets are parlays, but they account for 52% of your total losses. Your straight bet ROI is actually +2.1%. Parlays are the anchor dragging you underwater.
Recommended Action
Cap parlays at 10% of weekly volume. No parlays over 3 legs. Your 4+ leg parlays are 3-29.
est. cost: -$620/qtr
68% of your bets are on favorites. You're paying premium juice for the comfort of siding with the better team, but your dog plays actually hit at a higher rate.
Recommended Action
Track your underdog conviction plays separately. You have a real edge there. Lean into it.
est. cost: -$140/qtr
SPORT-SPECIFIC FINDINGS
Heavy NBA player prop volume with negative returns.
38% of NBA bets are props (52 bets). Props ROI: -18.3%, net -$340.
Recommended Action
Cut NBA prop volume by at least 50%.
Your NFL straight bets are profitable, but NFL parlays are dragging your overall NFL ROI down.
NFL straight bets: +$465 profit. NFL parlays (31% of NFL bets): -$380.
Recommended Action
Take your NFL reads and make them singles.
Strategic Leaks
Categories where your ROI doesn't justify your volume.
Player props are your worst category by a wide margin. You're betting on name recognition, not matchup data.
Suggestion
Cut NBA prop volume by 50%. Focus on the games you actually watch and research.
Your NFL parlays have a 14% win rate vs the 18% needed to break even at your average odds.
Suggestion
Take your NFL reads and make them straight bets. Your NFL spread game is +8.3% ROI as singles.
Bets placed after 10pm have significantly worse results. Impulsive, under-researched decisions.
Suggestion
Set a hard 10pm betting cutoff. Review overnight lines in the morning instead.
Six signals that reveal when emotions are driving your bets
Your stakes increase 1.9x after losses. Classic loss chasing.
Behavioral Patterns
Recurring habits we found in your betting. Some help you, some hurt you.
You place 63% of your bets on Saturday and Sunday. Your weekend ROI is -9.2% vs -2.1% on weekdays. More volume, less discipline.
Your NFL spread picks are genuinely strong. You have a real eye for line value in divisional games.
After 3+ consecutive losses, your betting frequency doubles and your stake size increases by 86%. You placed 14 bets over $200 in these sequences.
03
Your Data
Charts and evidence supporting the diagnosis
EXHIBITProfit/Loss Over Time
Track momentum shifts and identify when behavioral patterns impact results.
EXHIBITStake Size Timeline
How much you wagered on each bet over time. Spikes after losses can signal emotional betting.
Normal Within 1hr of a loss
ROI by Category
See where your edge lives and where it doesn't.
Session Analysis
A "session" is a group of bets placed close together in time, like a single night of betting.
Worst Session
2025-12-14−$680
Classic heated cascade. Started with a $50 loss, ended with a $250 desperation bet on Warriors -2. Eight bets in four hours, each one bigger than the last.
Best Session
2025-11-02+$282
Disciplined NFL Sunday. Three pre-researched spread plays, all winners. Didn't chase or add bets after going up.
3.8
avg bets / winning session
6.2
avg bets / losing session
More bets per session = more losses. You're at your best when you're selective.
62 sessions analyzed (3+ hour gap = new session)
Every betting session, detected and graded A through F
Your A-graded sessions average +12.4% ROI. Your F sessions average -38.7%. The math is clear. Discipline pays.
+$185
Sunday · 6 bets · 12:30 PM–5:15 PM
+ Consistent sizing
+ No loss chasing
−$680
Saturday · 9 bets · 7:45 PM–11:52 PM
− Stakes escalated 4x
− 4 chase bets
− 5-bet losing streak
Every bet, classified by behavioral intent
Your emotional, chasing, and impulsive bets cost you an estimated $1,420. Disciplined bets returned 7.2% ROI.
35% of your bets show emotional or chasing behavior, costing you an estimated $1,420. Your disciplined bets return +7.2% ROI vs -22.4% on everything else.
Worst Behavioral Bet
Stake increased 3.3x after previous loss + 3.0x median outsized position
SESSION-014 · Grade F · heated
Most Disciplined Bet
Maintained discipline after previous loss
SESSION-022 · Grade A
Edge Profile
Where you have a statistical advantage (edges) vs where you're losing money (leaks).
Below average. Focus volume on your 1-2 profitable areas.
Based on closing line value, category-level ROI consistency, and sample size confidence.
Profitable Areas
- NFL Spreads· high
56 bets
+8.3%
Unprofitable Areas
- NBA Props· −$340
52 bets
-18.3%
- All Parlays· −$620
87 bets
-38.4%
- Late Night Bets· −$180
38 bets
-22.7%
Reallocation
Shift 40% of your parlay and prop volume into NFL spreads and NBA underdog plays. Your profitable categories have high enough sample sizes to trust.
04
What It Costs
The dollar impact of your behavioral leaks
Leak Prioritizer
Total Recoverable
$2,062
Estimated money left on the table from all detected leaks and biases, ranked by impact.
Estimated. Some leaks may overlap.
Bets placed after 10pm have significantly worse results. Impulsive, under-researched decisions.
Fix
Set a hard 10pm betting cutoff. Review overnight lines in the morning instead.
Fix
Cap parlays at 10% of weekly volume. No parlays over 3 legs. Your 4+ leg parlays are 3-29.
Fix
Set a hard ceiling: no bet can exceed 1.5x your average stake ($123). After 3 losses in a row, stop for the day.
Player props are your worst category by a wide margin. You're betting on name recognition, not matchup data.
Fix
Cut NBA prop volume by 50%. Focus on the games you actually watch and research.
Fix
Track your underdog conviction plays separately. You have a real edge there. Lean into it.
What-If Simulator
Counterfactual scenarios calculated from your actual bet data.
Flat-staked at $75 on every bet
Actual
$-167
If fixed
$-113
Eliminated all parlays over 3 legs
Actual
$-167
If fixed
$-82
Only bet your profitable sports/types
Actual
$-167
If fixed
+$520
05
Protocol
Your personalized action plan
PRESCRIBED PROTOCOL
Your post-loss escalation is your single most expensive habit. Set a hard rule: after 3 consecutive losses, you're done for the day. No exceptions. Save ~$480/quarter
Your straight bet ROI is positive. Every parlay dollar is a drag on your bankroll. Cap parlays at 10% of weekly bets, max 3 legs. Save ~$620/quarter
This is your real edge. Shift volume from NBA props and parlays to NFL spread plays where you're actually profitable. +$200-400/quarter
Your late-night bets are impulsive and unprofitable. Review lines in the morning instead of placing bets at midnight. Save ~$180/quarter
Discipline Score
42/100Measures how consistently you're building better betting habits: tracking, sizing, emotional control, and strategic focus.
Tracking
Sizing
Control
Strategy
Weakest area: Sizing (8/25). Flatten your bet sizing. Big swings in stake amounts signal emotional decisions.
Your Rules
Never bet more than $125 on a single play
Your bets over $150 are 8-19. That's a 30% win rate costing you $890.
Based on: Stake analysis
No parlays over 3 legs
Your 4+ leg parlays are 3-29. Three legs max, period.
Based on: Parlay breakdown
After 3 losses in a row, stop for the day
Your 4th+ bets in losing streaks hit at 28%. You're chasing, not betting.
Based on: Loss sequence analysis
No bets after 10pm
Your after-10pm bets have a -22.7% ROI. Sleep on it.
Based on: Timing analysis
YOUR 3 MOVES
STOP
• NFL Parlays
• Late Night Bets
START
• More NFL Spreads
• NFL Edge
What happens next?
Run another autopsy in 2-4 weeks to see if your behavioral patterns are improving. Your scores update every time.
This is a sample. Yours will be even more personal.
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